Two-step sample-space tables
Track individual objects and their order before counting an event
- Identify physical objects Number the individual counters. Equal colours do not make two counters the same object
- Keep the stage order The first and second entries record different draws \(\displaystyle (1,3)\ne(3,1)\)
- Apply replacement Returning an object makes all n objects available again. Keeping it out leaves n−1 choices \(\displaystyle \begin{gathered}N_{\text{return}}=n^2\\N_{\text{keep out}}=n(n-1)\end{gathered}\)
- Check the headings A cell is impossible without replacement when its original row and column object numbers match. Shuffling the headings can move these cells away from the visual diagonal
- Count equally likely pairs Uniform selection from available individual objects makes every legal ordered pair equally likely \(\displaystyle \Pr(E)=\frac{F}{N}\)
- Separate exactly one from at least one Exactly one red excludes two reds. At least one includes one red and two reds
Worked example
A bag has two red and two blue counters. Draw twice uniformly without replacement. Find the probability of at least one red
- \(\displaystyle N=12\)Count ordered pairs of physical counters
- \(\displaystyle F_{BB}=2\times1=2\)Either blue may be first, leaving one blue
- \(\displaystyle F=12-2=10\)Every pair except both blue has at least one red
- \(\displaystyle \Pr(E)=\frac{10}{12}=\frac56\)The twelve individual-object pairs are equally likely
Common mistakes
Difficulty levels
Questions about this topic
Can the same colour occur twice without replacement?+
Yes, if at least two distinct counters have that colour
Why number counters?+
Numbers keep equally likely physical outcomes separate, even when colour labels repeat
Is the impossible region always the diagonal?+
Only when both axes list the objects in the same order. Compare object identities, not display positions
Does independence mean equal likelihood?+
No. Independence describes whether one result changes another probability; equal likelihood compares the probabilities of outcomes
How do I read a reversed table?+
Use the stage labels on the axes, then write the first-stage object before the second-stage object
What if objects are not selected uniformly?+
Counting cells alone is not enough. Assign each outcome its actual probability and add the favourable probabilities
Can I use a calculator?+
No. This topic is practised without a calculator
Which year level and chapter is this?+
Year 10 Mathematics, chapter 4: Probability