Use a transition matrix to predict the next step
A weekly team record classifies each player's availability
The matrix state order is available and limited. Columns represent the current state and rows represent the state next week. An entry is the proportion currently in its column state that will be in its row state next week
\[T = \begin{bmatrix} 0.5 & 0.2 \\ 0.5 & 0.8 \end{bmatrix}\]
The current-state column uses the same state order. Its entries are counts of players
\[S_{\mathrm{now}} = \begin{bmatrix} 112 \\ 115 \end{bmatrix}\]